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8 Aug 2014
BoE's August Inflation Report expected to provide details on rate hike timing - RBS
FXStreet (Łódź) - Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist at RBS suggests that BoE's BoE's August Inflation Report, due out on Wednesday, should contain guidance on the possible timing of the first rate hike.
Key quotes
"It is time to get 'back to basics' by providing a clearer, less convoluted form of policy signaling via a renewed focus on the CPI central projection."
"The key inputs into the August forecast – trends in GDP, inflation, market interest rates, the exchange rate, oil prices – suggest a largely unaltered CPI central projection (ie, a 5-10bp undershoot at the 2-3 year horizon)."
"This is our central case and would nudge the risks towards February 2015 for the first rate hike, while any rise in the CPI projection (and certainly any overshoot of the target) would suggest the first hike is coming in November 2014."
Key quotes
"It is time to get 'back to basics' by providing a clearer, less convoluted form of policy signaling via a renewed focus on the CPI central projection."
"The key inputs into the August forecast – trends in GDP, inflation, market interest rates, the exchange rate, oil prices – suggest a largely unaltered CPI central projection (ie, a 5-10bp undershoot at the 2-3 year horizon)."
"This is our central case and would nudge the risks towards February 2015 for the first rate hike, while any rise in the CPI projection (and certainly any overshoot of the target) would suggest the first hike is coming in November 2014."