USD/CNY to reach the 6.65 level in Q4 2022 – MUFG

The CNY appreciated roughly by about 0.65% against USD in November. For 2022, given the weakening growth outlook in China, economists at MUFG Bank expect the USD/CNY to hit the 6.65 mark in the fourth quarter.

Delay in recovery of global supply chain to provide support for CNY in near-term 

“Balancing the weaker US dollar, the possible still strong exports, and weaker sentiment about China’s domestic growth, we expect USD/CNY to reach 6.3850 by year-end.” 

“For 2022, we believe that China’s exports growth and trade balance are set to decline in medium-term, as COVID-19 becomes more under control and normalization of productions in US and Euro area advances. These, combined with continued deceleration of China’s GDP growth in 2022 and potential narrowing in the spread of real yields between China and the US from current elevated level will likely weigh on CNY against USD.” 

“We expect USD/CNY to reach 6.6500 in Q4 2022.”