US: Deep recession – Standard Chartered

Economists at Standard Chartered Bank lower the 2020 US GDP forecast to -5.4% (previously -2.8%) and expect Q2-2020 GDP to contract by 49% q/q SAAR, after a decline of 4.8% in Q1.

Key quotes

“We expect the economy to contract by 5.4% in 2020 (previously -2.8%). With most states planning to maintain restrictions until the first or second week in May, and certain restraints remaining in place through Q2, economic activity will likely stay subdued.” 

“We expect GDP to contract by 49% q/q SAAR in Q2, before picking up in H2, but see year-end GDP still below its end-2019 level (-2.3% Q4/Q4). We continue to expect growth of 4.6% in 2021, the headline number flattered by the recovery in H2-2020.”