Australia: Q4 CPI likely to print 0.7% – ANZ

Analysts at ANZ are forecasting the Australia’s headline inflation is likely to print 0.7% QoQ in Q4, with the annual rate rising to 1.9%.

Key Quotes

“The largest contributor to the headline figure is from the alcohol and tobacco segment. Petrol prices are also expected to add considerably to inflation this quarter, in contrast to the last. These two components add almost 0.6ppt to the headline number.”

“Trimmed mean inflation, the underlying measure of inflation focused on by the RBA, is expected to come in at 0.4% q/q again this quarter. This would see the annual rate stay at 1.6%. We see the risks to trimmed mean for the quarter as balanced.”

“Our forecast for trimmed mean inflation is in line with what the RBA published in the November SoMP. Although inflation is certainly important to the RBA, we think at this stage what happens with the labour market data on 23 January is key to whether the RBA cuts in February.”