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22 Apr 2013
Forex Flash: USD/CAD high test likely as AUD/USD upside capped - BBH
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman notes that provided the US dollar holds above CAD 1.02, he believes that a retest on the Q1 high near CAD1.0340 is likely.
He continues to see potential from a technical (and fundamental) point of view for a move toward CAD1.05. However, for its part, the Australian dollar has fallen back out of favor. He writes, “In January and February, the Aussie was a dog, falling a nickel from $1.06. However, in March and into early April, it was among the best performing of the majors. In mid-April it was turned back from $1.06 for at least the fifth time since last August.” Chandler finishes by noting that it traded below $1.03 every day this past week, but failed to make a sustained break. The near-term risk extends toward $1.02, while the $1.04 area should contain bounces.
He continues to see potential from a technical (and fundamental) point of view for a move toward CAD1.05. However, for its part, the Australian dollar has fallen back out of favor. He writes, “In January and February, the Aussie was a dog, falling a nickel from $1.06. However, in March and into early April, it was among the best performing of the majors. In mid-April it was turned back from $1.06 for at least the fifth time since last August.” Chandler finishes by noting that it traded below $1.03 every day this past week, but failed to make a sustained break. The near-term risk extends toward $1.02, while the $1.04 area should contain bounces.