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22 May 2014
The day ahead, first China and then EZ key events - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank explained that we will see data from China that may be the highlight of the day until Europe opens.
Key Quotes:
“In data terms the key numbers this morning are first Japan’s and then China’s HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI for May; the former was below 50 last month at 49.3 (no consensus estimate for May), while the latter is expected to pick up slightly from 48.1 to 48.3 – that would no doubt be taken as a sign of a ‘recovery’ from the slowdown underway despite the fact that it would still mean manufacturing contracted for a fifth straight month”.
“We then shift to Europe, where markets will focus most on the German and Eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs; the former are seen slightly lower this month at a still-healthy 54.0 and 54.5, respectively; the latter are therefore also seen down at a less-healthy (but by no means terrible) 53.2 and 53.0”.
“In the UK we see the second estimate of Q1 GDP, which might be revised higher from an initial 0.8% after the very strong retail figures yesterday; there is also the public-sector borrowing requirement, where the economic upturn should help balance the books better in YoY terms (arguing that the key to getting a fiscal deficit under control when private debt levels are also high is not austerity, but rather somehow driving an increase in nominal GDP growth)”.
“In the US there are the usual weekly initial claims and theMarkit manufacturing PMI, seen at 55.5 vs. 55.4 in April. Existing home sales are also out, and consensus is for a large MoM bounce of 2.2% after the slight decline recorded in March. Lastly, the Fed’s Williams will speak in San Francisco with an audience Q&A”.
Key Quotes:
“In data terms the key numbers this morning are first Japan’s and then China’s HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI for May; the former was below 50 last month at 49.3 (no consensus estimate for May), while the latter is expected to pick up slightly from 48.1 to 48.3 – that would no doubt be taken as a sign of a ‘recovery’ from the slowdown underway despite the fact that it would still mean manufacturing contracted for a fifth straight month”.
“We then shift to Europe, where markets will focus most on the German and Eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs; the former are seen slightly lower this month at a still-healthy 54.0 and 54.5, respectively; the latter are therefore also seen down at a less-healthy (but by no means terrible) 53.2 and 53.0”.
“In the UK we see the second estimate of Q1 GDP, which might be revised higher from an initial 0.8% after the very strong retail figures yesterday; there is also the public-sector borrowing requirement, where the economic upturn should help balance the books better in YoY terms (arguing that the key to getting a fiscal deficit under control when private debt levels are also high is not austerity, but rather somehow driving an increase in nominal GDP growth)”.
“In the US there are the usual weekly initial claims and theMarkit manufacturing PMI, seen at 55.5 vs. 55.4 in April. Existing home sales are also out, and consensus is for a large MoM bounce of 2.2% after the slight decline recorded in March. Lastly, the Fed’s Williams will speak in San Francisco with an audience Q&A”.