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8 Feb 2013
Forex Flash: December deficit may keep USD/JPY elevated – OCBC Bank
Emmanuel Ng of OCBC Bank suspects that the December 2012 current account deficit may continue to keep the USD/JPY aloft.
He feels that upside resistance still expected towards 94.00-94.40 while 93.00 is expected to emerge as an intra-day support while market consensus towards a dovish BOJ remains sufficiently concentrated at this juncture and this effectively is expected to impart sustained drag on the JPY across G10 space.
Looking to AUD/USD he notes that with the RBA lowering its GDP and core inflation forecasts and reiterating that scope remains for further rate cuts if necessary in its latest quarterly monetary statement this morning, AUD/USD may remain under threat from the bears in the near term. With the 200-day MA (1.0312) now serving as a resistance level, downside supports are now seen at 1.0250 and then at 1.0200, before 1.0150.
He feels that upside resistance still expected towards 94.00-94.40 while 93.00 is expected to emerge as an intra-day support while market consensus towards a dovish BOJ remains sufficiently concentrated at this juncture and this effectively is expected to impart sustained drag on the JPY across G10 space.
Looking to AUD/USD he notes that with the RBA lowering its GDP and core inflation forecasts and reiterating that scope remains for further rate cuts if necessary in its latest quarterly monetary statement this morning, AUD/USD may remain under threat from the bears in the near term. With the 200-day MA (1.0312) now serving as a resistance level, downside supports are now seen at 1.0250 and then at 1.0200, before 1.0150.