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AUD/USD is out of the danger zone, holding tight back on the 0.71 handle

  • AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7103, trading between a range of 0.7092 and 0.7131.
  • AUD/USD bulls can breathe a sigh of relief as US payrolls number will do very little to shake FX and equity vol.

AUD/USD was braced for the non-farm payrolls today, but there were no great shakes while a good-enough result in the jobs report will only keep the Fed in watch-and-wait mode. Indeed, payroll growth rebounded following last month's disappointing data for January although while wage growth was a little soft.

"The payrolls report does very little to alter the malaise that has defined the FX space," analysts at TD Securities explained:

"While wages were softer than expected, we are viewing FX through the lens of risk sentiment. Here, we think risk will be comforted by the fact that a weak February report was a temporary aberration. As such, we see little impetus for today's number to upset the apple cart as far as vol is concerned. This should extend AUD's performance on crosses against the likes of NZD and CAD especially, aided in part by incremental progress towards a US/China trade deal. We are more neutral on AUDUSD given the USD's high yielding nature. We think the 200dma located near 0.72 will be notable resistance. All told however, we hold little excitement for the broader G10FX space, where well-established ranges will continue to persevere as focus remains on macro developments abroad."

AUD/USD levels

Analysts at Commerzbank explained that AUD/USD is holding just below the near term downtrend at 0.7127 and while capped here, near term risks remain on the downside:

  • "Initial support is 0.7057 (end of March low), then 0.7004 the March low."
  • "The market faces tough resistance, namely 0.7207 (end of February high) and the 0.7201 200 day ma and this continues to cap."
  •  "We have a near term resistance line at 0.7127 and another at 0.7187."
  • "Price action in January was exhaustive – the market charted a hammer (reversal). This suggests the down move ended at 0.6738. Above 0.7295 will target the 0.7394 December high."

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