US: Focus on durable goods orders and goods trade balance - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect a deficit of $69.0bn for the US advance estimate of goods trade balance for August, following $72.0bn deficit in July.

Key Quotes

“Incoming container shipment data at US ports suggest that goods exports likely rebounded in August after recent declines, while goods imports likely slowed.” 

“Durable goods orders: We expect a healthy 0.6% m-o-m increase in extransportation durable goods orders for August, following a modest 0.1% in July. The new orders index in the ISM manufacturing survey improved strongly. August industrial production report indicated that the output of ex-transportation durable goods rose at a solid pace. Our forecast, if realized, would be consistent with the solid momentum in the industrial sector, boosted by strong domestic demand. For volatile transportation components, we expect a sharp rebound in August after a slowdown in July. New orders for nondefense aircraft and parts likely jumped strongly following a sharp pullback in the previous month. Altogether, we expect a 2.5% m-o-m increase in aggregate durable goods orders.”