UK Retail Sales Preview: Another solid 1.0% m/m gain in May on the cards?

Today, we have UK retail sales data due for the month of May, wherein the analysts from TDS and Nomura are expecting growth to continue in retail consumer spending pattern.

TDS

“We look for another solid month for UK retail sales in May with a 1.0% m/m gain (mkt 0.6%). With sunniest May on record, including over two bank holiday weekends, as well as a royal wedding (again accompanied by phenomenal weather) to help boost sales, May should finally see the volume of retail sales push above the peak that we saw in November 2017. After a few days of softer-to-neutral UK data releases, this would have the UK ending the week on a strong note, and we think that strong consumer spending data today will be the bigger influence on market expectations for the BoE, leaving a bit more confidence in our forecast for an August rate hike.”

Nomura

“Sales volumes grew more than 1% in April after falling in March, probably partly due to weather effects. While we expect sales growth to generally improve this year, we see some payback in the May report.”