Key US data previews: what will US Thursday bring? - Nomura

Analysts noted and previewed the next key US data.

Key Quotes:

"Initial jobless claims: Initial jobless claims remain subdued in light of a tight labor market and steady job growth. Over the medium term, we continue to expect low readings as the labor market tightens further. 

Advance goods trade balance and inventories: Incoming container data at major US ports for March have been somewhat mixed. It appears likely that imports of goods declined more than the slowdown in exports. Altogether, we forecast a narrowing of the trade deficit to $74.0bn in March (Consensus: $75.0bn), from $75.9bn in February. 

Durable goods orders: We expect durable goods orders excluding volatile transportation components to increase 0.5% m-o-m in March (Consensus: 0.5%), consistent with steady growth in the industrial sector. The March industrial production report showed steady output of durable goods excluding transportation. Moreover, the ISM new orders index in March remained elevated at 61.9. For total durable goods orders, we forecast a 0.8% m-o-m reading (Consensus: 1.6%), as increases in new orders of motor vehicles and parts will likely help offset expected declines in orders for civilian and defense aircraft."