US: Expect a moderation in the pace of job creation - NBF

Analysts at National Bank of Canada, suggest that in the U.S, the publication of non-farm payrolls for March will be watched closely next week and they expect a moderation in the pace of job creation following a stellar result in February (+313K).

Key Quotes

“Initial jobless claims continued to hover around historical lows in March, suggesting that the pace of layoffs remained subdued. What’s more, Markit’s composite PMI report showed employment expanding at the fastest pace since early 2015 in March, hinting at a good month for hiring.”

“All in all, our call is for a 195K print. Meanwhile the unemployment rate may drop one tick to 4.0% if, as we believe, the household survey shows moderate positive employment gains in March. Also, in March, the ISM manufacturing index could have continued its increase if Markit’s manufacturing PMI is any guide. We’ll also keep an eye on the publication of several indicators for February, including factory orders, construction spending, trade balance and consumer credit.”