SEK: CPIF to slip to 1.7% y/y in January – TDS

Analysts at TDS suggest that markets will be keeping a very close eye on today’s CPI data of Sweden, after they think that last week's Riksbank meeting left a very low hurdle to push back the timing of the first rate hike at the next policy meeting in April.

Key Quotes

“We look for CPIF to slip to 1.7% y/y in January, below both consensus of 1.9% and more importantly, the Riksbank’s forecast from last week's MPR of 1.9% y/y. A downside surprise would leave the Riksbank on track for further near-term downgrades to the 2018 inflation forecasts at the April meeting, which we think will be enough evidence to allow the Riksbank to push back the first rate hike by one quarter, to Q4 2018. Also today, Governor Ingves speaks at an event in NY at 6:30am ET.”