NZD/AUD corrective rebound to target 0.9245 - Westpac

The NZD/AUD cross’s corrective rebound targets 0.9245 during the week ahead and the cross’s rise over the past month reflects something other than the usual drivers (rates, commodities) going on, according to Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac.

Key Quotes

“We point to a string of data disappointments (retail sales, trade, household consumption) which has hurt the AUD. It remains to be seen whether strong jobs data can break the run this week.”

“The event calendar this week contains Nov NAB business confidence (Tue), Dec Westpac/MI consumer sentiment (Wed), and Nov employment (Thu) - the highlight.”

“3 months ahead: We target 0.89 during the next few months. Australia’s key commodities could outperform NZ’s (particularly if iron ore prices rise in sympathy with steel prices at multi-year highs). Relative interest rates are unlikely to feature strongly, since both the RBA and RBNZ are likely to be on hold for a long time, implying no major interest rate advantage to either currency.”