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10 Feb 2014
Flash: EUR/USD and USD/JPY to keep ranges - Societe Generale
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale, believes both pairs would remain within recent ranges in the short-term.
Key Quotes
"Friday's US labour market report was weak, but it did show the employment/population ratio pick up to 58.8, a level last exceeded in 2009. Wage growth edged up marginally to 1.9% and the unemployment rate fell again, this time with the participation rate up a touch to 63%. Finally, annual employment growth remains range-bound at 1.65%."
"The last of these is what powers GDP growth and in particular what puts a floor under growth. Recent data point to the economy being in a soft patch as a ‘new normal' recovery alternates between upside and downside surprises without really doing anything very much."
"Tomorrow, when Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivers the monetary policy report to the House, she will surly indicate that the economy remains fragile but is growing, and policy is set to remain on its current course. Meanwhile we look for retail sales to be unchanged in January, held back in part by the weather, and adding to eco-gloomsters' case. Nothing is happening to alter expectations of Fed policy, or to drive EUR/USD or USD/JPY out of current ranges. No change to our view that the dollar will be stronger, but in the long rather than the short term."
Key Quotes
"Friday's US labour market report was weak, but it did show the employment/population ratio pick up to 58.8, a level last exceeded in 2009. Wage growth edged up marginally to 1.9% and the unemployment rate fell again, this time with the participation rate up a touch to 63%. Finally, annual employment growth remains range-bound at 1.65%."
"The last of these is what powers GDP growth and in particular what puts a floor under growth. Recent data point to the economy being in a soft patch as a ‘new normal' recovery alternates between upside and downside surprises without really doing anything very much."
"Tomorrow, when Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivers the monetary policy report to the House, she will surly indicate that the economy remains fragile but is growing, and policy is set to remain on its current course. Meanwhile we look for retail sales to be unchanged in January, held back in part by the weather, and adding to eco-gloomsters' case. Nothing is happening to alter expectations of Fed policy, or to drive EUR/USD or USD/JPY out of current ranges. No change to our view that the dollar will be stronger, but in the long rather than the short term."