US employment growth expected to surge by around 190,000 in July – Wells Fargo

Research Team at Wells Fargo, notes that the last month’s US employment report was met with a sigh of relief from the markets and Fed policymakers.

Key Quotes

“The dismal May payrolls number, initially reported at 38,000, had renewed fears of a U.S. recession, but the 287,000 rebound in June suggested that the weak print in May was more likely noise than a collapse in hiring.

Beyond the volatility of the past two months, however, the trend in payroll growth is moderating. Employers added an average of 171,000 jobs in the first half of 2016, about 50,000 fewer than the same period last year. The low level of initial jobless claims and favorable employment readings from regional Fed surveys suggest employment growth rose around 190,000 in July. That should be sufficient to reduce the unemployment rate to 4.8 percent after last month’s curiously large rise in the number of unemployed workers.”