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4 Jan 2016
Week ahead: Markets will monitor indicators to gauge the course of global economy
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Week ahead: Markets will monitor indicators to gauge the course of global economy
A slew of very important market moving indicators are scheduled to be released in the first week of 2016. Data from China will be carefully watched as the markets will try and gauge the possibility of revival of the slowing economy. China’s inflation data is scheduled to be released on Saturday and if estimates are anything to go by, deflationary pressures seem to be mounting on the world’s second largest economy. Service sector index of Japan, China, UK, euro zone and the US to be released this week will show whether the sector is continuing to support growth in the major economies in the backdrop of slipping manufacturing growth. Euro zone CPI and other PMI data will be the other significant data this week as it will give an indication whether ECB’s easing policies have worked to spur growth in the euro zone.
Also, the US jobs report is due this week Fed chair Janet Yellen has stressed that the subsequent rate hike will be gradual and data dependent. The US jobs report and PMI data assumes outmost importance as it will impact Fed’s rate decisions in the coming months. Retail sales data from euro zone as well as Australia will show whether or not demand has firmed in these markets. The US ISM manufacturing PMI data and the factory output data will also be closely monitored to check whether or not activity in the manufacturing sector has recovered from the early losses or is the sector still reeling under the impact of strong dollar and lower oil prices.
4th January
Caixin China manufacturing PMI (December): Manufacturing is expected to rise to 49 from 48.6. Markets to watch: high grade copper, AUD crosses, mining companies
German manufacturing PMI (December, final): Manufacturing is expected to remain at 53.
Germany Consumer Price Index (December)- CPI is expected to rise 0.2 per cent month on month in December, as against 0.1 per cent registered earlier. Year on year, it is expected to rise 0.6 per cent as against 0.4 per cent recorded previously.
Eurozone manufacturing PMI (December, final): Manufacturing is expected to remain at 53.1.
UK Markit Manufacturing PMI (December): Markit Manufacturing PMI expected to rse slightly to 52.8/52.9 in December.
US ISM manufacturing PMI (December): Manufacturing is expected to rise to 49 from 48.6 recorded previously.
5th January
German unemployment change (December): Unemployment is believed to have fallen by 8000. The earlier reading was a decline of 13,000.
UK construction PMI (December): Construction PMI is estimated to increase to 56 from 55.3.
Eurozone CPI (December): CPI is tipped to rise from 0.2% to 0.4%.
6th January
Japan services PMI (December): Services PMI estimated to expand to 52.54 from 51.6 recorded earlier
Caixin China services PMI (December): The service sector is expected to expand to 52.38 from 51.2.
German services PMI (December): Services are anticipated to remain unchanged at 55.4.
Eurozone services PMI (December): Services PMI can be expected to stay unchanged at 53.9.
UK services PMI (December): Services are expected to drop to 55.8 from 55.9. Markets to watch: GBP crosses, UK 100
US ADP employment change (December): Employment is tipped to fall to 194,000 from 217,000.
US services PMI (December): Services PMI can be expected to expand to 55.8 from the earlier reading of 53.7.
US ISM non-manufacturing (December): Markets are broadly expecting a reading of 56, up from 55.9.
US factory orders (November): Factory orders are expected to drop by 0.4%, compared with a 1.5% rise in October.
7th January
German factory orders (November): Orders estimated to increase by 0.2% on a monthly basis, from a 1.8% increase in October. Year on year, orders can be expected to increase by 1.2% on a yearly basis, compared with a 1.4% decline in October.
Eurozone unemployment (November): Unemployment is believed to have held steady at 10.7%.
Eurozone retail sales (November): Retail sales have possibly risen by 0.2% on a monthly basis, compared with a 0.1% fall in October; while year on year it is believed to have increased 2% on a yearly basis, as against with a 2.5% increase in October.
8th January
Australia retail sales (November): Retail sales are expected to rise by 0.4% compared with a 0.5% rise in October.
UK trade balance (November): The trade deficit is expected to contract to £2.5 billion from £4.1 billion.
US non-farm payrolls and unemployment (December): Payrolls is tipped to fall to 200,000 from 211,000. Unemployment is expected to remain at 5%.
Canada unemployment (December): Unemployment is expected to remain at 7.1%.
9th January
China inflation (December): Inflation is estimated to have stagnated in December from 0.1% on a monthly basis. It is expected to come in at 1.5% on a yearly basis.
A slew of very important market moving indicators are scheduled to be released in the first week of 2016. Data from China will be carefully watched as the markets will try and gauge the possibility of revival of the slowing economy. China’s inflation data is scheduled to be released on Saturday and if estimates are anything to go by, deflationary pressures seem to be mounting on the world’s second largest economy. Service sector index of Japan, China, UK, euro zone and the US to be released this week will show whether the sector is continuing to support growth in the major economies in the backdrop of slipping manufacturing growth. Euro zone CPI and other PMI data will be the other significant data this week as it will give an indication whether ECB’s easing policies have worked to spur growth in the euro zone.
Also, the US jobs report is due this week Fed chair Janet Yellen has stressed that the subsequent rate hike will be gradual and data dependent. The US jobs report and PMI data assumes outmost importance as it will impact Fed’s rate decisions in the coming months. Retail sales data from euro zone as well as Australia will show whether or not demand has firmed in these markets. The US ISM manufacturing PMI data and the factory output data will also be closely monitored to check whether or not activity in the manufacturing sector has recovered from the early losses or is the sector still reeling under the impact of strong dollar and lower oil prices.
4th January
Caixin China manufacturing PMI (December): Manufacturing is expected to rise to 49 from 48.6. Markets to watch: high grade copper, AUD crosses, mining companies
German manufacturing PMI (December, final): Manufacturing is expected to remain at 53.
Germany Consumer Price Index (December)- CPI is expected to rise 0.2 per cent month on month in December, as against 0.1 per cent registered earlier. Year on year, it is expected to rise 0.6 per cent as against 0.4 per cent recorded previously.
Eurozone manufacturing PMI (December, final): Manufacturing is expected to remain at 53.1.
UK Markit Manufacturing PMI (December): Markit Manufacturing PMI expected to rse slightly to 52.8/52.9 in December.
US ISM manufacturing PMI (December): Manufacturing is expected to rise to 49 from 48.6 recorded previously.
5th January
German unemployment change (December): Unemployment is believed to have fallen by 8000. The earlier reading was a decline of 13,000.
UK construction PMI (December): Construction PMI is estimated to increase to 56 from 55.3.
Eurozone CPI (December): CPI is tipped to rise from 0.2% to 0.4%.
6th January
Japan services PMI (December): Services PMI estimated to expand to 52.54 from 51.6 recorded earlier
Caixin China services PMI (December): The service sector is expected to expand to 52.38 from 51.2.
German services PMI (December): Services are anticipated to remain unchanged at 55.4.
Eurozone services PMI (December): Services PMI can be expected to stay unchanged at 53.9.
UK services PMI (December): Services are expected to drop to 55.8 from 55.9. Markets to watch: GBP crosses, UK 100
US ADP employment change (December): Employment is tipped to fall to 194,000 from 217,000.
US services PMI (December): Services PMI can be expected to expand to 55.8 from the earlier reading of 53.7.
US ISM non-manufacturing (December): Markets are broadly expecting a reading of 56, up from 55.9.
US factory orders (November): Factory orders are expected to drop by 0.4%, compared with a 1.5% rise in October.
7th January
German factory orders (November): Orders estimated to increase by 0.2% on a monthly basis, from a 1.8% increase in October. Year on year, orders can be expected to increase by 1.2% on a yearly basis, compared with a 1.4% decline in October.
Eurozone unemployment (November): Unemployment is believed to have held steady at 10.7%.
Eurozone retail sales (November): Retail sales have possibly risen by 0.2% on a monthly basis, compared with a 0.1% fall in October; while year on year it is believed to have increased 2% on a yearly basis, as against with a 2.5% increase in October.
8th January
Australia retail sales (November): Retail sales are expected to rise by 0.4% compared with a 0.5% rise in October.
UK trade balance (November): The trade deficit is expected to contract to £2.5 billion from £4.1 billion.
US non-farm payrolls and unemployment (December): Payrolls is tipped to fall to 200,000 from 211,000. Unemployment is expected to remain at 5%.
Canada unemployment (December): Unemployment is expected to remain at 7.1%.
9th January
China inflation (December): Inflation is estimated to have stagnated in December from 0.1% on a monthly basis. It is expected to come in at 1.5% on a yearly basis.