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9 Nov 2015
NZD: December is going to be a close call for RBNZ – Westpac
FXStreet (Delhi) – Imre Speizer, Senior Markets Strategist at Westpac, suggests that markets have only priced in a 32% chance the RBNZ will ease by 25bp in December, with 100% priced not until March 2016 but we assess the chance at around 60%.
Key Quotes
“Ahead of the RBNZ’s December interest rate decision we’ll be watching a few key indicators. These include dairy prices, and conditions in the housing market (the next set of REINZ house sale figures is due over the coming week).”
“In addition, we’ll be keeping a close eye on the NZD. Earlier in the year, the RBNZ had been banking on a fall in the NZD to generate substantial boost in imported inflation. The September MPS forecast a fall in the TWI from 70.0 to 67.9. “
“However, the TWI has strengthened since then to 73.7, and is currently at 71.6. As a result, tradeables inflation is likely to undershoot the RBNZ’s forecast.”
Key Quotes
“Ahead of the RBNZ’s December interest rate decision we’ll be watching a few key indicators. These include dairy prices, and conditions in the housing market (the next set of REINZ house sale figures is due over the coming week).”
“In addition, we’ll be keeping a close eye on the NZD. Earlier in the year, the RBNZ had been banking on a fall in the NZD to generate substantial boost in imported inflation. The September MPS forecast a fall in the TWI from 70.0 to 67.9. “
“However, the TWI has strengthened since then to 73.7, and is currently at 71.6. As a result, tradeables inflation is likely to undershoot the RBNZ’s forecast.”