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Forex: USD/JPY holding steady around 94.00

The Japanese yen is back to the proximities of the key resistance at 94.00 against the buck on Monday, as markets remain unbiased so far. The cross keeps trading in a narrow range, as an empty docket in the euro area plus the holiday in the US markets are leaving the cross to follow the risk trends.

“The next key yen event will be the appointment of the new Bank of Japan governor. This may trigger some volatility in the market but, given that the Japanese economy contracted during Q4 and that the GDP deflator showed -0.6% y/y, we expect the Bank of Japan to continue with aggressive easing and hence for relative economic policy to continue to drive the yen weaker”, assessed K.Kirkegaard, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank.

At the moment, the pair is up 0.29% at 93.96 facing the next resistance at 94.22 (high Feb.8) ahead of 94.41 (high Feb.12) and then 94.46 (2013 high Feb.11).
On the flip side, a breakdown of 93.62 (low Feb.18) would expose 93.32 (Tenkan Sen line) and finally the psychological level at 93.00

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Alongside the current account data, the ECB is also due to release December's portfolio flow data today. The creation of the ECB's OMT program has had a stabilizing effect on sovereign bond markets, which triggered a return of exiled capital in November. In fact portfolio inflows are now much larger than those associated with the current account surplus. We expect this pattern to continue in December as memories of the crisis fade a little further.
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Regarding the communiqué itself, last week the G20 pledged to "move more rapidly toward more market-determined exchange rate systems and exchange rate flexibility to reflect underlying fundamentals". Seeking to downplay the notion of currency wars, the G20 added that "We will refrain from competitive devaluation. We will not target our exchange rates for competitive purposes".
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