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Forex Flash: USD/JPY confined to 92.20-94.00 range - BBH

Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman notes that for the better part of the past two weeks, the dollar has largely been confined to a JPY 92.20 and 94.00 range.

He sees that it successfully tested the lower end of the range before the weekend and as it became clear that the G20 were not going to single Japan out or chastise it, the dollar recovered. He feels that It should now test the upper end of the trading range and he is a bit wary of a potential reversal there.

He writes, “As hubris often precedes a lesson in humility, so too when the Wall Street Journal writes of how much money some large hedge funds are making in the short-yen trade and the talking heads on business television discuss how everybody knows to short the yen, one must worry that the gig is up--like going to a New Year's Party after midnight.” On the dollar´s downside, he notes that the greenback has not closed below its 20 day MA since the Japanese election was called on November 15th and it is now close to JPY 91.95, just below the lower end of the trading range.

Session Recap: Majors consolidate in quiet trading

The European session has been marked by slow trading, although the EUR/USD saw a short-lived EUR/USD spike toward 1.3380, mainly driven by cross buying (EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP). The pound remains under pressure below 1.5500, while the USD/JPY claimed back the 94.00 level after G20 members did not single out Japan. Looking ahead, trading is expected to remain subdued as US and Canada are on holiday.
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Commodities Brief – Gold cannot hold onto to earlier gains, crude oil rallies

Gold prices have been largely unable to hold onto their gains from Asian trading Monday, as the stock markets maintain a respite in the United States given the observance of Presidents Day. Followjng a move up towards the 1670 region earlier today, European trading witnessed a surrendering of gains. At the time of writing, the price of the yellow metal has settled at USD $1610.98, up only $2.18 Monday. "The latest price slide was accompanied by significant outflows from gold ETFs, while investors on the futures markets are also largely to blame for the price drop" says today's commodities note from Commerzbank.
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