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Forex Flash: What to do with EUR/USD? – Commerzbank, Danske Bank and UBS

The single currency is navigating session lows on Friday around the 1.3330 region, recovering ground after dipping further to the area of 1.3310

“The 1.3270/56 band is key near term… This is likely to hold the initial test – however the risks have increased that we will see an eventual break down through here towards the more important 1.3164 7 month uptrend and a close below here is required to negate the up move completely”, writes Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

Senior Analyst C.Tuxen at Danske Bank commented, “We stick to our view that among the four major currencies, the euro will still be the top pick in H1 13. We now forecast EUR/USD to peak on a 6M horizon reaching 1.38, and then lower to 1.34 in 12M”.

In addition, the Swiss bank UBS has now shifted its outlook to neutral from bullish, and Strategists G.Yu and G.Berry added, “There is strong support at 1.3270. Only a closing break below this would trigger deeper sell-off to 1.3187. Resistance is at 1.3520 ahead of 1.3564”.

Forex Flash: Trade convergence in GBP vol space. - Societe Generale

Sebastien Galy, Senior FX Strategist at Societe Generale notes that the recent rise in EUR/GBP vol left cable vol lagging.
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G20 officials to discuss currency wars

The Group of 20 nations finance ministers and central bankers meet in Moscow on Friday for two-day talks. The main topic on the agenda will be currency manipulation and specifically Japan’s aggressive monetary expansion aimed at eliminating deflation.
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