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Forex Flash: EUR has a weak hand in the currency wars; EUR to end year on a firmer note - Rabobank

Following the 1,000 pips strengthening from November lows at 1.2660 to reach 15-month highs at 1.3710 the February 1st, the EUR/USD has been trading lower to price today close to the 1.3300 frontier.

Currently the EUR/USD is trading at 1.340 and indicators points bearish, but Rabobank's Senior Currency Strategist Jane Foley sees the EUR ending the year or a firmer note as they argue that the euro has a weak hand in the currency wars. "In essence this means that currency wars will continue as long as the economic environment is characterized by weak growth and low inflation."

"While there is a risk that Eurozone tensions will re-ignite in the next few months and drag the EUR lower, we expect that the EUR will end the year on a firmer note," points Foley

On a 12 month view, Raboabnk expects "EUR/JPY in the region of 133 and EUR/USD at 1.40."

Forex: EUR/USD stuck at 1.3320/45 range

The market is trying to get off its daily lows, area where the EUR/USD has been trading around since the release of the disappointing flash GDP reports in Europe, pointing to wider recession than expected in Q4, and the accomodative stance in the ECB monthly report.
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Forex Flash: Gilts eye 114.47/30 support – RBS

According to Dmytro Bondar, a Technical Markets Strategist at RBS, “Gilts experienced another strong selloff after breaking its tightened range, as the 115.11 support was tested. The price action suggests there is more downside likely and the 114.47/29 stands as the main support region for now. This is the area of 200% Fibonacci projection from the December 2012 selloff and retracement of the March-June extremes. Below that the 113.83 and the 113.43 would be expected to provide support. On the upside, 115.50 stands out as an important retracement, which would likely limit any bounces.”
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