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Forex Flash: Credit gridlock scenario – Goldman Sachs

A sluggish post-bust recovery, ultra-low risk-free yields and significant corporate surpluses have meant that non-financial corporate credit has been the asset of choice for many investors in the post-financial-crisis period. EM sovereign credit, while a smaller and less liquid market than US corporate credit, shares similar features. According to the Economics Research Team at Goldman Sachs, “As a consequence, a steady tightening in spreads and the ultra-low level of risk-free yields have pushed yields on corporate credit and EM US Dollar credits to decade lows.”

“For most of 2013, there is little in our forecasts to suggest that this basic credit-supportive environment is set to shift. Credit fundamentals are still very healthy, but improvements may have peaked and incentives for corporate releveraging are strong. While our best guess is that the search for yield will continue and that spreads should grind lower, our baseline forecasts show limited upside for the year ahead and it will be harder for credit assets to offer ‘equity-like’ returns, as in the past few years.” the team adds.

Forex Flash: USD risks appear neutral in short-term – Westpac

According to Global Strategist Sean Callow at Westpac, “While we still struggle to build a compelling multi-week case for sustained USD upside amid suppressed global volatility and abundant liquidity conditions, short-term USD risks appear more neutral. Draghi’s comments that the EUR’s rise may also alter the ECB’s risk assessment on price stability and that the Bank is sensitive to the money market impact of LTRO repayments suggests another ECB easing cannot be ruled out.”
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Forex: USD/CAD trading negatively after upbeat US data

The USD/CAD has had a very narrow trading range today, operating in a 26-pip consolidation between 1.0000 and 1.0026. After the publication of some upbeat US data, the pair was seen trading negatively and settling at 1.0011/13, down -0.07% Thursday during the onset of American trading. Concerning the CAD, the price of crude has also staged a recovery, negotiating a value of USD $93.27 in these moments.
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