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ECB Monthly Report: Monetary policy will remain accomodative

February's ECB Monthly Report includes information on the latest ECB meeting during which the Governing Council decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.75%.

The Council expects inflation to drop below 2% in the upcoming months. It explains that “medium to longer-term inflation expectations for the euro area remain firmly anchored in line with the Governing Council’s aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2%”, thus the monetary policy stance will continue to be accomodative. The Eurozone HICP forecast was lowered to +1.8% in 2013 and to +1.8% in 2014.

As for GDP, the report states that in the fourth quarter of 2012 and in the first quarter of 2013 economic activity in the Eurozone still revealed weakness, but due to improved confidence in financial markets a stabilization in business and consumer confidence can already be seen and recovery should start in mid-2013. For this year, the ECB staff sees GDP flat, while for 2014 growing 1.1%

Regarding the early LTRO repayments (so far €140.6 billion of the €489.2 billion have been repaid) the Governing Council points out that they may help further reduce excess liquidity expectations.

Forex: EUR/HUF in session highs after Hungary data

The Hungarian forint is markedly depreciating against the single currency on Thursday, after the domestic economic activity shrank 2.7% on a yearly basis during the last quarter of 2012,...
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Commodities Brief – Precious metals pull back, supports in focus

Following a tight period of consolidation overnight, Gold prices pulled back again off of the 1646 mark before testing the 1642 region (slightly above initial support and the important 1640 barrier). However, the yellow metal has recovered slightly during European trading, as it operates above its 20 and 50-day MA Thursday. According to the Technical Analyst team at ICN.com, “the 1640.00-area is the potential reversal zone for a bullish harmonic Gartley pattern, while the completion of the pattern suggests a bullish rebound is imminent however. Thus, we will count on the pattern to cautiously expect an intraday bullish rebound.” Ultimately a move past the 1652 (February 13 high) level will be eyed as a confirmation of this trend. At the time of writing, gold prices have settled at USD $1643.98, trading negatively -$0.22 in these moments.
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