EUR/NOK: 2024 could be finally the year of love for the Krone – ING

Economists at ING expect the Norwegian Krone to regain some ground next year.

Norges Bank can “out-hawk” the Fed

Our economics team has an out-of-consensus dovish call on the Fed in 2024, which implies a sharp decline in global rates and argues for Norges Bank rate cuts. However, NOK may face more headwinds before US data turns (also given high FX purchases), and Norges Bank could see benefits in holding a hawkish stance longer than the Fed to favour a stable NOK recovery after hiking in December of this year.

Our base case remains a decline in EUR/NOK below 11.00 before year-end 2024.