EUR/USD: Two conditions required to see a breach of 1.09 – Commerzbank

EUR/USD has been unable to surpass the 1.09 level. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the pair’s outlook.

EUR/USD seems to be slowly running out of steam at 1.09

At EUR/USD levels just below 1.09 things then clearly got a little too hot for the market and the gains were retraced. The market had already considered this level to constitute an initial obstacle on Tuesday.

A breach of the 1.09 mark would probably require a clearer indication that inflation is returning to target levels or that a recession is looming in the US. Or both. 

In the absence of any new information of this nature – today will only bring second-tier US data – exchange rates are likely to be stagnating.